---
title: "Berlin Marathon 2015: Gaby Traña and analysis of the best"
published: 2015-09-25
updated: 2026-08-04
source: "https://dev-abp.massivoai.com/en/articles/maraton-de-berlin-2015-gaby-trana-y-analisis-de-los-mejores"
---

# Berlin Marathon 2015: Gaby Traña and analysis of the best

**Exactly four years ago, on September 25, 2011, Gabriela Traña raised her arms in Berlin celebrating the best marathon time of her life, and in the process her qualification for the London 2012 Olympic Games. Today, four years later, she is about to try again.**

It will perhaps be her last attempt to go to her third and final Olympics. The first was Beijing 2008, to which she was invited since she did not have the minimum qualifying time; then came her golden era and the best times of her life that took her to London 2012. Today, her best moments seem to have passed, but armed with her experience Gabriela may have a chance to achieve that coveted 2:42:00 that would qualify her for Rio 2016.

Let's analyze her odds. Of the 16 marathons she has run so far, she has only broken 2:42:00 in two of them: the first was in Berlin, four years ago (2:38:22), and the second at the Chicago Marathon 2013, when she ran 2:41:49. Her recent marathons don't offer much hope to the equation: 2:52:03 at the Rotterdam Marathon in April of this year and 2:51:51 in November 2014 in Veracruz. Gabriela needs to cut a full 10 enormous minutes from her recent performances to qualify for Rio... for now we're losing.

If we judge by her half-marathon performance, things improve, but not much. Her best hope is the 1:19:54 she achieved at the Women Rock Half Marathon last month. That is her best half-marathon in the last year, but it's far from the 1:15:01 she achieved at the Edinburgh half-marathon during her best period before London 2012. With that 1:19:54, the marathon projection according to mathematical formulas would be approximately 2:46:00. But fortunately the formulas are not the ones running, and besides, over the last six weeks Gabriela has reduced her training load and therefore should be fresher and better prepared to run fast in Berlin.

In summary, repeating something similar to the 2:38:22 from four years ago is unlikely, but with a perfect day perhaps she could get close enough to that 2:42:00 that would take her to her third Olympics. All our strength for her and best wishes.

**Elite and Ticos**

More than 150 Costa Ricans will run the 42nd edition of the Berlin Marathon this Sunday. Why is it so attractive? Well, the trip to Berlin of course, a beauty. But also running in a field of 41,224 runners must be something to remember, waving the Costa Rican flag and crossing the same finish line that the greatest marathoners in history have crossed. Because in Berlin the last six marathon world records have been set, including last year's by Dennis Kimetto (2:02:57). And this is due to the completely flat course, with very little wind and perfect weather to run between the 11° and 19° Celsius that usually prevails on marathon day. Like good Germans, it seems they have everything coldly calculated.

Will the record be broken this year? Neither Kimetto (2014 winner and record holder) nor Kipsang (2013 winner and record holder) will be there, but there will be three athletes who have come close to the record, all Kenyans. Eliud Kipchoge is perhaps the best marathoner at the moment, he has won his last 4 marathons and his best time is 2:04:05. Emmanuel Mutai has the second-best time in history, 2:03:13 achieved a year ago in Berlin, and Geoffrey Mutai has run 2:04:15 although he has suffered with injuries in recent years. Any of them could go for the record, although perhaps the favorite to take the honors (with record or not) is Kipchoge.

Among the women, keep an eye on Kenyan Gladys Cherono, who made her marathon debut last year with an impressive 2:20:03 in Dubai. Her strongest rival is probably Ethiopian Aberu Kebede, who has won Berlin twice and has a personal best of 2:20:30.

The marathon will be run this Sunday starting at 1:00 a.m. Costa Rican time.

 

A Buen Paso uses [Massivo](https://massivoai.com), the event-registration platform that powers this article.