César Lizano, Jonathan Varela, and Jenny Méndez will attempt to qualify tomorrow for the Rio 2016 Olympic Games. The three will run the Houston Marathon, with favorable weather and course conditions to achieve the minimum time required for the major Olympic event. But how likely is it that they will achieve their goal?
César Lizano is the only one of the three who already knows what it is like to qualify for an Olympic Games. In 2011 he ran the Chicago Marathon in 2:17:50, which earned him a ticket to the London 2012 Olympics, where he finished in 65th place. Since then he has not managed to improve his personal best, but he has always been close to the 2h19:00 he needs to qualify for Rio.
Just in 2014 he ran the Sacramento Marathon in 2h18:19, which would have been enough to qualify for Rio, but he did it a year before the deadline set by the International Olympic Committee for qualification. In 2015 he ran two marathons; London in 2h21:31 and Chicago in 2h21:09. Based on these results, it would be difficult to bet on César to achieve the Olympic standard tomorrow in Houston, however...
César did in recent months what he had never done before: he went for 10 weeks to a high-altitude training camp in California to prepare to the maximum and achieve adaptations that he would not have achieved in Costa Rica. He focused entirely on his training, on his goal, and bet everything on what he says will be his last attempt to qualify for Rio. This can make the difference, plus César already knows the Houston course since he ran it in 2013 in 2h22:01.
For her part, Jenny Méndez, who is just a few steps away from officially becoming Costa Rican, is very close to the goal. Last October she ran the Marine Corps Marathon in 2h45:56, less than a minute off the qualifying time (2h45:00). The thing is that marathon was not as favorable as the Houston one for achieving good times. Now, with the motivation of her new Costa Rican nationality and the possibility of representing the country in Rio 2016, it would be no surprise if Jenny crosses the finish line tomorrow with her ticket to the Olympic Games.
Jonathan Varela is a bit further from the Olympic time but he is also in the fight. Last year he ran the Los Angeles Marathon in 2h23:17 and the Chicago Marathon in 2h24:13. If his training has improved at all in these months and he has a good day (in marathons you never know), he could well give us a surprise. Three months ago in Chicago he ran at Olympic pace during the first half but slowed down in the second half and fell short of the goal.
The race for the Olympic dream will begin tomorrow at 6:45 a.m.
