Every year the same thing is said: at the Berlin Marathon a new world record will be set. However, we have gone three consecutive editions without one since Dennis Kimetto achieved his fabulous 2:02:57 in the 2014 edition. Why would this year be any different?
In two words: ELIUD KIPCHOGE. That's right, in capitals to better represent the monster that this Kenyan is in the marathon. He has never held the world record for the distance, and yet he is considered almost unanimously as the best marathoner of the moment and perhaps of all time. He has run 10 marathons in his career and has won 9 of them. The only one he lost was coincidentally Berlin 2014 when his compatriot set the current world record. But that was only his second marathon and he still had much to learn.
Now, at 33 years old and about to run his #11 (a number within the magical range for achieving better marathon times according to renowned sports scientist Tim Noakes), he enters with the experience of having run the fastest unofficial marathon in history last year, clocking 2:00:25 in Monza, Italy. That time does not count as official because it was assisted by a pace car and by pacemakers who took turns maintaining the pace throughout the entire course, both factors prohibited by the IAAF. But Nike's Breaking2 experiment definitely opened the minds even of the most skeptical and put on the table the clear possibility that a human being could break, in the short term, the two-hour marathon barrier.
The first step, of course, is to break 2:02:57. And the best man to attempt it is undoubtedly the one who already ran 2:00:25 (assisted or not, it's a beast of a time). Kipchoge also has in his repertoire having defeated figures of the caliber of Mo Farah and Kenenisa Bekele without much trouble and, as if that weren't enough, his personal best is 2:03:05, just eight seconds above the world record. So it's a fact that he can run, at minimum, at record pace.
Last year he ran Berlin already with the experience of Monza giving him confidence and achieved "only" 2:03:32, but there's a catch: the marathon was run entirely in adverse conditions with rain and wind. Taking that factor into account the time is not bad at all. If this Sunday the conditions are favorable (as it is in fact forecast to be) the question will not be so much whether Kipchoge will set a new world record, but by how much he will lower it.
Eliud stands apart from the rest of the competitors in one fundamental aspect: his mental strength. Speaking slowly and with philosophical undertones in his discourse, Kipchoge maintains a simple lifestyle despite his worldwide fame and an unbreakable discipline for training. Much of this is due to Patrick Sang, the only coach he has had in his career and, more than a coach, a "mentor and life teacher" as Eliud himself confesses.
For Berlin 2018 Kipchoge has stated that he has every intention of going to improve his mark and, taking into account that this is only 8 seconds slower than the world record, it is a fact that he will attack history. He will have, as is characteristic in Berlin, an elite team of pacemakers who will set the pace for him until they can no longer hold it (30k?) and a competitor who already knows what it is to have a world record in his pocket: Wilson Kipsang. His compatriot set the marathon world record in Berlin 2013 with 2:03:23 and has broken 2:04:00 on four occasions, making it a habit to flirt with the world record.
They have beaten each other in Berlin, the score is 1-1 and this Sunday will be the tiebreaker.
Women
It has been 16 years since Paula Radcliffe's feat, or rather since Paula Radcliffe's madness, of running the marathon in 2:15:25 and it was so extraordinary and ahead of its time that in all these years no other woman has been able to get within even 90 seconds of her mark. Knowing this, is it worth suggesting a possible women's record? The logical answer would be no, were it not for the fact that Tirunesh Dibaba is in the starting lineup for this Sunday. For those who don't know her, Tirunesh is perhaps the best distance runner in history with three Olympic golds, a still-standing world record in 5000 meters, the fourth best time in history in 10,000 meters, and the third fastest woman in the marathon. With that record I at least don't dare rule out a feat by the Ethiopian, who has also made it clear that she is going with every intention of improving her personal best in what will be her debut in Berlin, so we could see her approaching 2:16 if conditions permit.
The Berlin Marathon will be this Sunday at 1:15 a.m. Costa Rica time, with 44,389 runners registered for the start of what promises to be a race for the history books.
